10 Wednesday AM Read – Big picture

Morning in the middle of my week The train WFH reads:

A Worst 6 months for financial markets. The period ending June 30, 2022 is among the worst 3% of all 6-month returns since 1926. Only 6 months performance numbers that were worse than what we just gave during the Great Depression, 1937 crash, WWII, 1970 market, dot-com bubble burst and 2008 crash. (Common sense resource)

A We are not already in recession: We believe a recession is coming but the United States is clearly not in one yet. In the first five months of the year, manufacturing output grew at an annual rate of 6.6%, non-farm wages rose at an average monthly rate of 488,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.9%. Meanwhile, in April, consumer spending and actual personal income were at record highs. If it is a recession, we can use more recession. (Real Clear Markets) See more We are probably not in recession right now: You’ve probably noticed that things are very strange now. The stock market is crashing but the economic data is still quite fine. We’re probably not in recession right now, but the market is working as if an impending one. (Irrelevant investors)

A Incredible prices go up as the economy cools: Remember that bad news for the economy can be good news for inflation. And so if prices continue to fall as a result of declining production activity, then what the Fed is looking for is bad news. (TKer)

A The red states are winning the post-epidemic economy Workers and employers have moved from the coast to the area between the country and Florida, where rapid recovery has begun (Wall Street Journal)

A Why this crypto crash is different : There can be no return to a highly leveraged, fractionally preserved cryptocurrency system whose illusory resources are now leading the way to real loss. (Coindesk)

A ‘God, Hwang and Archegos’: Inside details of collapsed farm revealed in lawsuit: Former Employee Loss Bonus $ 50 Million Recovery Case Litigation Claims Family Office Conducted as ‘Personality Religion’. (Bloomberg)

A The lost glamor of department-store restaurants: Pot pie and fancy sweets make shopping delicious. (Atlas Obscura)

A Can dual-use solar panels provide power and share space with crops? Companies like Bluewave are betting on it. But there are critics of technology. (New York Times)

A The Happiness Data which destroys a Freudian theory: In a five-decade study involving more than 2,000 participants, researchers found that success does not actually make people unhappy (Wall Street Journal)

A America’s unique, enduring gun problem, explained: The causes of tragedies like Highland Park, Tulsa and Uvalade are deeply involved in U.S. politics, culture and law. (Vox)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week in Perth Toll with the founder and sponsor of the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF, founder of the Life + Liberty Index. The first type of strategy uses the metrics of personal and economic independence as the primary cause of its investment process. Prior to the formation of the Life + Liberty Index, Perth was a personal wealth advisor to Fidelity Investments in Los Angeles and Houston, and lived and worked in Beijing and Hong Kong, where his observations led him to explore the relationship between freedom and the market.

US House price increases by state

Source: Miller Samuel

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