In the early days of the epidemic, many (including myself) underestimated how long Covid-19 would last and its ultimate social impact. Some have made bold, even tragic, predictions.
Lot’s most eye-catching was “New York City is dead forever.” The NY Post edition of the New York Times led Jerry Seinfeld to a reaction.
By now, you probably know that Seinfeld was right, and Nycera was wrong.
What you don’t know is how accurate Seinfeld was. The city may have suffered its biggest collapse in the early stages of the epidemic, but once vaccines became more widely available, it was one of the fastest rebounds.
For details, check out this interesting piece in Bloomberg City Lab: “More and more people are moving to Manhattan than before the epidemic.” This is an amazing set of data analysis and infographics about the record increase in demand for Manhattan apartments.
Some bullet points:
-Manhattan lost the most population – and then returned the most
-Majhari house prices have risen everywhere. In Manhattan they are back to pre-epidemic levels
-New York City rental price, which is close to 10% before the epidemic
-Medial rent increased from Kovid low to 32% across the borough
-The suburbs around NYC are still competitive real estate where inventory is running at half the normal rate.
Read the whole thing. . .
See more:
New York City Died Forever, by James Altucher (NY Post, August 17, 2020)
Jerry Seinfeld: So you think New York is ‘dead’ (it’s not.) (New York Times, August 24, 2020)
Before:
Nobody Knows Nuthin ‘(May 5, 2016)
Nobody Knows, Kentucky Derby Edition (May 9, 2022)
Nobody Knows, NFP Edition (June 5, 2020)
Forecasting and forecasting discussion
Formula:
More people are moving to Manhattan than ever before the epidemic
By Sarah Holder
Graphics and data by Marie Patino
Citylab, June 8, 2022
