Nowhere to hide



Welcome to the second half Great year, The worst start of any year since 1982? 1971? 1929? Choose your favorite year, precision no longer matters.

The headlines are screaming at us about how bad the first half was. The New York Times is fairly general: “After the worst start in 50 years, some see more pain for the stock market.”

Mohammed El-Aryan puts it well:


Problems with all these hand marks: This is a feature, not a bug, And you can’t do anything about it. If you want the opposite, you must endure the uncomfortable negative (less or less).

Consider the century of the drawdown as shown in the chart above. If you want to see any kind of long-term return, the cost of admission with a regular reduction in value.

You can bring variety, but it hasn’t helped much this year. You can try to market time, but good luck with that. Very few people can do it, fewer still with any continuity, and fewer will still do it for you. You can try to miss the big bottom days, but then you will also miss the big up days.

To make matters worse, those who try to make time make a hash out of the process, 30% never return to risky assets or equity – just go in cash, and * shit * stay that way for the rest of their lives.

Instead of being dragged into this frenzy, it is much more effective and psychologically healthy that we have to admit that drawdowns, corrections, good markets and crashes are just part of the process.

In fact, these are a very important part, because beer markets and crashes are where you make the reverse income on top of the risk-free treasury. Risk is what leads to returns – and risk means suffering through a market that fails to meet your expectations.

Happy Holidays. . .





Big Up Big Down Day May 5, 2022

Panic Selling Quantified (March 24, 2022)

If you sell now, when will you be back? (March 23, 2022)

Market volatility is a feature that is not a bug (February 11, 2019)

Pundit Suckitude: This is a feature, not a bug. (July 30, 2013)


There is nowhere to hide the post in The First The Big Picture.

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